- Economic Trend: Trade War signifies millions of investment in Indonesia
- Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/indonesia-stands-to-gain-from-u-s-china-trade-war-lembong-says?srnd=economics-vp
- I believe there is an opportunity for development through jobs and international relations as the trade war between the US and China calls for the relocation of factories to primarily Indonesia and other southeast asian countries. This will allow for these nations to be responsible for one third of the worlds demand, and subsequently will boost their economies and employment rate.
- The prototypical customer in this situation would be the work force of these nations. Those unemployed and struggling with poverty will find opportunity with jobs and those employed will see the economy and welfare improve.
- I saw this opportunity because I've travelled to some of the southeast asian countries mentioned and they are primarily tourism driven economies with average economies. The relocation of Chinese factories would be a huge boom in terms of development.
- Economic Trend: Mexico, an attractive market
- Source: https://www.lanacion.com.ar/2213711-mexico-un-atractivo-mercado-que-esta-mas-cerca-de-lo-que-parece
- With the change of presidency in Mexico, investors were cautious as to how the economy would react. Being the 4th biggest economy in the Americas and the 15th economy in the world, many countries have been eyeing the Aztec nation. A new president means new politics, and that could always open up gates for new investments.
- As an Argentine, I believe the prototypical customer would be for Argentine exporters, particularly in areas such as wine and software. Our current economic situation sees the USD in AR$ decreasing, which is giving businesses confidence for exterior investment.
- I saw this opportunity as we (Argentina), recently received assistance by the FMI, and our currency is just starting to get stronger after years of it decreasing. Hopefully it will keep going in this direction and local businesses can start investing internationally.
- Regulatory Trend: Next country to legalize pot
- Source: https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/10/18/country-legalize-pot-canada/
- The legalization of cannabis for either medical or recreational purposes is something that has taken boom in many different countries around the world. As countries surpass the stigma around legalizing weed and intake the potential economic gain, more and more countries are taking the leap.
- The prototypical customer for this would depend on whether the legalization is for medicinal or recreational purposes. In the case of medicinal the government would benefit tremendously. In the case of recreational purposes private enterprises would benefit from this opportunity.
- I saw this opportunity as I lived in California for two years and was introduced to the weed culture they have over there. In California private enterprises are gaining tremendously and creating profit with huge margins. I've noticed that California, Colorado and Canada were the first to take the leap and now other states and nations are becoming interested.
- Regulatory Trend: Mandatory solar panels on new homes, California.
- Source: http://fortune.com/2018/12/06/california-solar-panels-new-homes/
- California has passed a law obligating the inclusion of solar panels on newly built homes. The law is to be placed in effect as of Jan. 1, 2020.
- The prototypical customer for this would be both home owners who would benefit from renewable energy, and the companies that would provide this source of energy such as solar panel companies. Designers are also a potential customer as they can develop new ways to include solar panels.
- I was made aware of this law after leaving my stay in California, and I though it was really neat. It's an important step for becoming an eco-friendly state and hopefully will be followed by other states.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
6A – Identifying Opportunities in Economic & Regulatory Trends
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I feel that the full legalization of marijuana, both recreationally and medicinally, is just a matter of time. The guise that the government is con concerned for our well-being is so easy to see through. Their policies are probably driven in large part by the influence of Big Pharma, who knows that as soon as pot becomes available widely, their profits will dwindle. I think that marijuana offers many amazing benefits, but I also realize that it is not without consequence. Like any other substance, it can be abused, but it is not the fault of the substance. It is up to the user to exercise self-control and use it responsibly. As someone who uses marijuana, I can confidently say that I am infinitely more dependent on coffee than I am weed.
ReplyDeleteHey there Carlos! I'm super interested in your knowledge about Argentine economics and politics since it's a country I hear little about but know there are major trends that are highly influential such as capital flight and such. In the case of Mexico, what do you see being the biggest push for interest in the country? Foreign direct investment is usually a smart move but thats considering the government on government investment usually leads to highly linked economies. Do you think more businesses moving into the Mexican market is just as likely?
ReplyDeleteIn the case of the trade war I like your optimism in the moving of money and capital out of China due to the trade war, but trade wars are usually the skin to deeper issues in politics. China still has a huge advantage with production and costs, so would there be any other incentive besides trade security that you feel could benefit corporations?
Hey Carlos, this was a very interesting blog post and I really enjoyed reading about it. I was just wondering why you think specifically Indonesia and the US have a possible burgeoning trade relationship with jobs? I just think that it's more complicated than just moving certain factories to a different country such as Indonesia from China as I feel like there's more behind the trade deficit than just where the factories are being placed. I also feel that your response of the legalization of marijuana was a great read and I feel like you hit a lot of the key topics right on the head. I too feel like that will be the next big thing.
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